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Watch IIAT’s Texas Primary IMPACT Briefing for Independent Agents, presented with Marquez Public Affairs.
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If you think the March primaries were just political inside baseball, think again.
What happened at the ballot box could have a real impact on independent insurance agents across Texas. The primaries offered an early preview of the political shifts, legislative priorities, and policy fights that could shape the 90th Legislature, especially on issues like insurance affordability, lawsuit reform, and the overall business climate.
On Thursday, March 12, IIAT hosted the Texas Primary IMPACT Briefing for Independent Agents with our government affairs partner, Marquez Public Affairs, featuring insights from Enrique Marquez, Principal at Marquez Public Affairs.
Here is the bottom line: the political landscape is likely changing, and independent agents need to be ready.
1. The political map may be getting more competitive.
One of the biggest surprises from the primaries was the strength of Democratic turnout.
Texas saw a record for early voting during the 2026 primary, with more than 2.5 million people casting ballots before election day. This surge in early participation was marked by a 119% increase in Democratic early votes and a 13% increase in Republican early votes compared to 2022. While the sources indicate that nearly 4.48 million Texans cast ballots in total for the primary, the early voting period accounted for a significant portion of that historic turnout.
That does not necessarily mean Texas is flipping. It does mean more races could become competitive, especially in certain parts of the state. And when races get tighter, policy debates usually get louder.
For independent agents, that matters. A more competitive political environment can affect which issues get attention, how lawmakers position themselves, and what kind of legislation gains traction.
2. Republican primary runoffs will shape the general election.
The Republican primary landscape has transformed into a strategic standoff, specifically within the "triangle" of Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and the looming influence of Donald Trump. One point separated Cornyn and Paxton as they headed toward a runoff, but the fight is as much about policy as it is about personality.
Paxton has effectively "put Cornyn in a box" regarding the Save Act, a legislative push centered on voter ID, and proposed changes to U.S. Senate filibuster rules. Paxton offered to exit the race only if Cornyn committed to ending the filibuster to clear the way for Trump’s agenda. Cornyn’s subsequent editorial openness to these changes indicates the pressure is working, but it has left the party in a state of internal suspense.
Simultaneously, we are watching a proxy war in the Attorney General’s race. State Senator Mayes Middleton is currently leading Congressman Chip Roy, a race that serves as a key metric for shifting power dynamics within the party's conservative wing. The stakes are high; if Paxton or his allies secure these wins, the general election becomes a different beast entirely. We are already seeing the Democratic nominee for Senate, James Talarico, prepare for a massive infusion of outside capital.
"This is going to be a knife fight in a phone booth, and it is just going to be one of the most interesting election cycles that we've seen," said Marquez.
3. There will be a lot of new lawmakers in Austin.
Turnover is coming to the Texas House, and that is a big deal.
The 90th Legislature will welcome at least 24 brand-new faces, a result of 21 retirements and three incumbents who were defeated outright.
The most high-profile casualty of this anti-incumbent fever was in Congressional District 2, where challenger Steve Toth thumped incumbent Dan Crenshaw by 15 points. Crenshaw’s status as the only Republican House member without a Trump endorsement proved fatal in an environment where the "shield of incumbency" has effectively shattered.
For the "Big Three"—Speaker Burrows, Governor Abbott, and Lieutenant Governor Patrick—this turnover is a double-edged sword. While it creates a steeper learning curve, it also reduces "friction." Veteran legislators often act as institutional speed bumps; with a fresh roster, leadership can potentially move faster on aggressive agendas involving infrastructure, energy, and property tax relief.
New lawmakers bring new energy, but they also bring a learning curve. Many of them will need education on how insurance works, what is driving premium increases, and how public policy affects agencies and consumers.
That creates a real opportunity for independent agents.
When lawmakers are new, they are often more open to hearing from people back home. That gives IIAT members a chance to help shape their understanding early and build relationships that matter.
4. Affordability is becoming the issue to watch.
This is the one agents should pay closest attention to.
Texas leaders are making it clear that affordability is rising to the top of the agenda, and that includes insurance affordability. Families and businesses are feeling the pressure, and lawmakers know it.
That means the next legislative session could bring a much sharper focus on what is driving higher insurance costs, including litigation abuse, catastrophic weather losses, reinsurance costs, and broader market pressures.
Independent agents are in a unique position here. You see what clients are dealing with every day. You know what is happening in the market. And that real-world perspective is exactly what lawmakers need to hear.
5. Grassroots advocacy still matters
Yes, money matters in politics. But relationships still matter more than most people think.
Lawmakers hear from lobbyists, interest groups, and major donors all the time. What often stands out most is a trusted local voice explaining how an issue affects real people and real businesses in the district.
That is where independent agents make a difference.
You are not just insurance professionals. You are business owners, employers, and community leaders. When you speak up, lawmakers listen. That is why grassroots advocacy remains one of the most powerful tools IIAT members have.
Why this matters now.
The road to the 90th Legislature is already taking shape. The elections are not over, but the policy conversations are already starting.
For independent agents, this is the time to pay attention, stay informed, and stay engaged. The decisions made in the months ahead could affect your agency, your clients, and the future of the Texas insurance market.
Support IMPACT, IIAT’s PAC
Advocacy is not automatic. It takes relationships, strategy, and sustained support.
That is why IMPACT, IIAT’s PAC, is so important. Supporting IMPACT helps strengthen IIAT’s voice in Austin and supports the advocacy efforts that protect independent agents and the clients you serve.
Carie Ann Roach
Director of Technical Affairs