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‘Extremely Active’ Hurricane Season Predicted for 2024

Article originally published in IA Magazine.

A prediction issued by weather forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) forecasts 23 named storms, 11 of which will be hurricanes, in an “extremely active" 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. CSU predicts that of the hurricanes, five will be Category 3 or higher.

The prediction is informed by warm sea surface temperatures and an impending end to the El Niño weather pattern as it becomes La Niña, which means less high winds to break up storms in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean in the summer and fall, according to CSU.

Aligning with CSU's prediction, AccuWeather gives a 10%-15% chance of 30 or more named storms in the 2024 hurricane season, aligning with CSU's forecast.

An average hurricane season is considered to have 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes and three are major hurricanes. Last year, three major hurricanes formed among seven hurricanes and 20 named storms, the most damaging of which was Hurricane Idalia.

Catastrophes like hurricanes are major factors contributing to the crisis-riddled homeowners insurance market. In particular, Florida has seen rising premiums and a mass carrier exodus that puts pressure on the state-backed insurer of last resort, with Floridians now facing an average yearly homeowners premium payment exceeding $6,000.

CoreLogic's “2023 Hurricane Risk Report" found that more than 32 million single-family residences and 1 million multi-family residences are at moderate or significant risk of sustaining damage from hurricane-force winds. An additional 7.8 million homes are susceptible to storm surge flooding due to direct or indirect coastal exposure.

“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season," the report said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."

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Cari Senefsky

Director of Professional Liability